楼市，大变天！

前程无忧

从2022年下半年开始，楼市政策方向就已经发转变了。从那个时候起，楼市的利好措施就不断出台，但每次出台利好措施后的效果似乎有点不尽人意。
面对这样的市场表现，只能是说：楼市，真的是已经变天了！
这几年，不论房地产投资、新开工面积、新竣工面积等有关楼市的数据都表现的不佳。而市场层面更不必说了，不论是成交量还是房价，现在基本上都是处于一个下行的态势。
究竟为何会出现这样的情况？尤其是每次利好措施之后，市场出现了一波脉冲式行情之后，又会很快回归于平静，重新回到下行的通道上来了？
目前政策的效果真实与当年不可同日而已了，像2015年的“330”新政之后，房地产市场的行情基本上是一点即着，房价从一线城市到三四线城市甚至县城开启了一波轰轰烈烈的上涨行情，这也为后面的市场埋下很多“雷”。
究其原因，其实现在也是越来越明了了。
一是人口进入了负增长周期，国内人口已经出现连续两年的负增长，而且2023年的人口减少数量还在加大。这无疑对于未来房地产市场的发展是非常大的利空。人口的减少将直接导致未来住房需求的减少，虽然这有一个过程，但是预期往往影响更大，又是国内房地产市场具有深度的金融属性。
有人喜欢拿一些个别的例子来反驳这个观点，其实也没有什么好争论的，市场的表现已经说明一切。或许一线城市及一些二线城市确实受此因素的影响比较小，但绝大多数城市的楼市肯定会受此影响很大。
另一方面是住房供应的继续增加，经过二十多年的大建特建，国内大多数城市的住房市场供应已经超额了，而还有很多在建、未建的房子将持续推出市场，对整个房地产市场的供需平衡将会产生重大冲击。
这就是上面说的房地产的市场关系已经发生了重大的变化，房地产市场已经进入供大于求的时期了，很简单的经济规律，房价也就必然再也很难继续上涨了。这样意味着房地产进入一个新的周期了！

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