楼市走到现在，说4句心里话

sanasnoz

楼市“小阳春”虽然不如预期，但关心楼市的人还是不少，这几天不断有读者向我咨询楼市走向的事。
总结起来，不外乎几个问题：
比如，房子老了，现在不好卖，后面还有回升的空间吗？或者是说还要跌？
还比如说，现在到底是不是买房时机，有没有可能抄底抄在半山腰？
有两套房子价格相比前两年跌了30%了，现在想换新房，低价卖掉现房不心甘，又担心看中的新房折扣收回咋办？
当然，还有其他问题。研究楼市这么久，针对目前的市场情况和现象，想说4句心里话，同样以问题的形式聊聊，希望能够回答读者朋友们经常关心的问题。



第一句，楼市真实情况到底怎么样？
现在市场舆论有两个方向：
一个是一些自媒体为了流量竭力唱空楼市，另一个是官媒呵护楼市。
前者好理解，反正说这里跌了几千、那里跌了几万，总能博得一些人的眼球，有流量就有收入，至于真实市场不是他们关心的。
后者就更容易理解了，因为国家目前对楼市的态度就是促进市场平稳，起码先要止跌，然后才能谈其他的。目前所有的政策都是围绕这个来做的，作为官媒，代表了国家对楼市的意志。比如北京日报3月27日就发表了题为“别用特例唱衰北京楼市”。
作为一个正常人，肯定是希望了解真实的楼市现状。现状是什么呢？
1.二手房成交量确实比年前有明显增长，但主要是以降价换取的成交量，说白了，你要变现一套房子，往往都是小区的最低价格，这个没什么好说的，现在就是这个市场氛围。
2.新房市场确实不尽如人意，开年这段时间，龙头开发商的销售额同比下降了约30%，虽然去年同期基数比较高，但即便打些折扣，销售下滑的态势仍旧明显。所以，不要听一些媒体说楼盘有多火爆，性价比再高的楼盘，卖不完是事实，大多数楼盘都不敢加推更是事实。
3.置换动弹不得。老房子很难卖，如果狠心打骨折卖的话，买新房要加很多钱，一些人索性就不动了，想等等市场走向明朗，这类人占有相当大的比重。
4.还有一部分人手里好几套房子，想等市场回暖些卖掉，不玩了，小心脏受不了，这也是为什么很多城市的二手房挂牌量高企的原因，你卖掉一套，还有第二套、三套挂出来。



第二句，楼市到底能不能回暖？
现在促进楼市恢复的措施越来越多，可以说是眼花缭乱，但真正能一招制敌的方法并不多。整理起来，大概5条路径：
1.以降低房贷利率、提高公积金贷款额度、发放购房补贴、放开购房资格、贷款等方面的限制，这主要是从需求端刺激购房者入市。
2.各城市以城中村改造为抓手，尽可能地启动拆迁。这个道理都懂，上一轮去楼市库存就是棚改启动拆迁，效果确实是立竿见影，大家手里有钱了，对楼市的需求刺激非常明显。但需要说明的一点，之前是国开行发放了大量的贷款启动拆迁，但现在地方债务都比较庞大，所以，如果城市本身财力不行的话，拆迁的力度和范围都会比较小。一般说来，大城市在这方面有优势一些。
3.收购存量房去库存。今年一些地方已经在这么做了，一个是国家试点的8个城市，发放贷款用于收购卖不掉的楼盘，直接用作保障房。另一个是地方国资收购存量房用作保障房，这种方式同样考验地方的财力，大城市在这方面肯定还是有优势一些。
4.通过放开一线城市需求带动其他城市市场。通过两年的楼市政策优化，二线及以下能放松的政策基本都出了，即便有个别城市还象征性的保留主城区限购资格，只要真要买房，其实都是可以变通的，不过是保留最后一点颜面罢了。
所以，现在只有不断放松一线城市的限购资格，最近接二连三的小步快跑式放松就是最好的例证，说白了，只有一线城市率先回暖，其他地方才有可能被传导，否则，一天到晚都在说大城市这里降了、那里跌了，其他小弟怎么混？结果可想而知。
5.土拍带动。开年以来，包括合肥、杭州等城市土拍不断有新地王诞生，在3月27日一天内还诞生了3个地王，分别是苏州、厦门和宁波。这不是巧合，更像是与当下提振楼市的目标不谋而合。根据中指院的数据显示，截至3月26日，2024年第一季度全国土地出让金同比增长了10.4%，平均楼面价同比增长了23.5%。按理说，无论新房市场，还是二手房市场都不咋地，开发商怎么还敢积极高价拿地呢？不合常理。
但如果你看看具体的地块就知道，各城市都拿出了最核心的地块，此前多年不供地的老城区、主城区域地块都拿出来卖了，而且还把容积率定得老低，原因很明显，其他区域反正也没人要，就把这些压箱底拿出来卖，这些基本都是豪宅的胚子，自然会受到房企们喜欢，出现地王也就不足为奇了。说明两点，一是地方需要土地财政，二是通过高价地带动市场人气和预期，为回暖楼市助力。



看出来没有，由于房地产与过去面对的形势不一样，单一的措施无法达到促稳的目的，现在是改为采取组合拳的策略，相对于过去的一招制敌，发挥作用的周期肯定要长一些，市场肯定会回暖，但需要等待。
第三句，如何判断楼市是更差还是真回暖了？
观察判断楼市的指标起码有十多个，对普通人来说，没那么多时间去研究，就说一个最为关键的指标：所在城市楼市去化周期。
啥叫城市楼市去化周期（可在各地官方网上房地产查此数据）？用白话理解就是，按照目前楼市的新房库存量/目前一个月的去化套数。比如说，你所在城市新房库存量8万套，目前一个月销量是5000套，需要16个月去化完毕。这个数据到底是高了还是低了呢？
一般来说，大多数城市的楼市供需平衡线是10-12个月，很显然，16个月是高于供需平衡线的，意味着供大于求，属于买方市场，主动权在购房者这一方，开发商只能优惠促销，但如果再过两个月，当月的销量达到8000套了，那意味着只需要10个月就能去化完毕，达到供需平衡线，如果再往下，市场就很可能出现供不应求，天平转向卖方市场，这个时候，开发商就有收回折扣并提价的动机，房价易涨。反之亦然。
当然，少数城市供需平衡线不是10-12个月，要么高点，要么低点，到了这点，市场就会有反应。用去化周期对比供需平衡线，去检验楼市走冷或者走热是非常有效的，你不要管这里中介吹、那里媒体喊，说涨到天、跌到-18层都不要管，数据不会说谎，你只看城市楼市去化周期就行。



第四句，假如楼市回升，自己的房产价值可能怎么走？
这个应该是很多人都在关心的一个问题。管他东西南北风，我知道自己的房子价值如何走就行。决定这方面的其实主要就看这两个。
一是房地产发展趋势。
人少，房多，这是眼下房地产最明显的状态，你要问身边谁家没房，老实说，真的不多，他可能在这个城市没有，但在其他城市是有的，而一个城市里，一家好几套房子的人比比皆是，要不有调查数据说，有近一半的城市家庭都有2套及以上房产，除了几大一线城市，一个三口之家平均1套半房是主流。
但我们知道，在一座城市，住一套房子也就足够了，多余的房子，其实就是期待能保值增值，一旦遇到市场不行，亏的就是自家的财富。一般来说，好点的房子都是自己住，差点的房子就用来出租或者售卖，所以，多出来的房子往往都不是那么受欢迎，其价值也不如前者，往往以老房子、刚需房为主。
二是政策。
最近大家应该关注到一个动向，住建部要试点建设好房子，在房地产领域开辟一个新赛道，毫无疑问，随着城市化进入最后的1/5阶段，刚需锐减，人们对住房的需求向改善过渡，不需要再建那么多刚需房了。有3个政策可以佐证：自然资源部取消远郊1.0的别墅限制、取消土拍限价，各城开始取消90/70户型配比政策，各省、市修改容积率规定，今后普遍供应低密住宅。
房地产长期看人口、看政策，我们不能对眼下政策导向变化视而不见。说直白点，人人都需要好房子，但以前人口增长快，鸽子笼建起来容纳人口多，但现在人口变少了，有这个条件供应改善地块了。就像一个家庭一样，养两个孩子与养一个孩子，提供给孩子的条件是完全不同的。
一句话，未来楼市发展方向是低密改善产品，大高层被人唾弃的趋势越来越明显，无论曾经有多么豪，在低密面前几乎是没有还手之力的。说这话，有的人可能不爱听，但希望能早入耳，当大家都意识过来之时，那将是相当惨烈的。

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