记者实探“撤辣”后的香港楼市：新房成交量显著上升，内地买家热情高

前程无忧

“‘撤辣’后，楼盘咨询量明显上涨。”有香港房产中介近日向《证券日报》记者表示。

自2月28日香港楼市“撤辣”（撤销住宅物业需求管理措施）以来，至今已有一个月时间，当地新盘成交量显著上升。数据显示，2月28日至3月28日，“撤辣”后香港一手楼市成交4074宗，而“撤辣”前一个月（1月28日至2月27日）仅有229宗。

数据背后，是香港开发商抓住“撤辣”风口加速推出新盘，并积极将香港的房产项目推介至内地，包括联动深圳房产中介门店推出“香港撤辣”等标语，吸引内地购房者。同时，一些香港房产中介也在抖音、小红书等平台发布短视频，组建微信群等，发布香港最新楼盘信息，约内地买家实地看房。

那么，“撤辣”带来的楼市热潮能否长远？汇生国际资本总裁黄立冲对《证券日报》记者表示，香港“撤辣”政策的短期效果确实显著，成交量的激增反映了市场对这一政策变动的积极响应。然而，长远来看，随着市场供应的增加和开发商抛盘的压力，楼市价格可能会继续面临下行压力。建议内地购房者在做出投资决策前，进行充分的市场调研，谨慎评估市场风险，并考虑长期持有的可能性。

内地买家热情高，地产开发商加速推盘

3月9日，《证券日报》记者从深圳坐高铁，前往香港实探楼市。当日14时左右，记者来到香港九龙城区的维港1号。据带房中介小哥介绍，该楼盘是2023年建成的新楼盘，目前已有购房者入住，由于价格较高，仍有部分现房待出售。“撤辣”后，该楼盘的咨询量上涨。

记者观察到，当天排队看样板间的购房者较多，在大厅需要预约取号登记看房，每位顾客仅限看3套样板间。在维港1号低层，花1356万港元可以购买一套656尺的房子，大概60平方米。

“维港1号能够看到海景，且离港铁启德站较近，后续还会有单轨列车等交通配套措施建成。”前述中介表示，该项目具有投资价值，且租金回报率也较高。

另外，维港1号所在的启德区非常受“新香港人”（指来自中国内地的香港新移民群体）和内地买家偏爱。据美联物业统计，截至目前，3月份透过美联购入启德新盘的买家中，“新香港人”和内地买家占比超过一半。

在“撤辣”后，内地购房者加速涌入香港看房。记者与多位中介机构、有意向购房的内地客户交流后发现，第一类人群是刚需人群，包括在港读书毕业工作的学生、来自内地的陪读妈妈群体，有一定购买力，后续计划在香港工作定居，买房后供房比租房划算。这类人群在“撤辣”之前也有购房需求，“撤辣”后一套价值千万港元的楼盘可以少缴纳300万港元左右的税款，购房需求加速释放。

对此，易居研究院研究总监严跃进在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，从“撤辣”后的成交数据来看，香港楼市需求量明显拉升。资金的流向恰恰说明，背后有一些合理需求支撑，也体现了购房者对香港楼市前景的看好。

第二类是来自深圳、上海等内地一线城市的“高端购买力”人群，其大多出于投资需求，看好香港楼盘未来的升值空间等。“‘撤辣’后一次买3套维港1号的房子，或者一次买5套新盘，这些基本是内地的高端客户。”前述中介表示。

随着香港楼市新盘热卖，购房者热情高涨，香港各大地产商加快推盘步伐，积极吸引资金。数据显示，仅3月27日至3月31日，市场将迎来1000个新单位（即“1000套新房”）。

数据显示，3月1日至28日，香港一手楼市已达3993宗。中原地产亚太区副主席兼住宅部总裁陈永杰预计，3月份一手楼市成交量可能触及4500宗。美联住宅部行政总裁布少明则预计，3月份的新盘成交量有望达4200宗，这将是香港《一手住宅物业销售条例》2013年4月份实施以来，单月成交首次破4000宗的纪录。

美联物业网站提供的新楼盘成交数据显示，在3月份以来成交的一手房中，近六成为1居至2居，近七成的成交房价在2万港币/平方尺以下，近九成距离地铁较近，同时超四成距离深圳较近。

香港楼市的主流成交是小户型。例如，香港九龙湾新楼盘泰峯在3月份首轮推售336个单位并获得19.5倍超额认购，其项目户型主要是30平方米、40平方米。不过，长实集团3月28日推出的首批“BlueCoast”大都是3房至4房的大户型，目标锚定内地的“高端购买力”。

记者注意到，内地房企在港楼盘也在“撤辣”后加速推盘，包括五矿地产在港楼盘蔚蓝东岸、万科在港楼盘长沙湾连方Ⅱ等。

黄立冲表示，“撤辣”措施短期内激发了交易量，但也可能导致大量的抛售行为。开发商为了抓住市场回暖的机会，可能会加速推盘，这在一定程度上会增加市场供应。

专家提醒投资者，需谨慎评估风险

对于内地购房者赴港买房投资这一现象，严跃进表示，香港楼价较高，对于购房者的购买力要求也较高。目前内地一线城市也在放宽楼市政策，内地投资者的买房选择面相对较宽。另外香港楼市环境也在变化，建议投资者要进行审慎地判断和决策。

从香港私人住宅供给量来看，1998年至2022年平均每年新增1.8万套私人住宅供给，相对有限。《财政预算案》显示，预计今年起五年内，私人住宅单位每年平均落成量超过1.9万个，较过去五年的平均数增加约15%。未来3年至4年一手私人住宅单位潜在供应量约为10.9万个单位。

长远来看，“撤辣”对香港后续楼价走势影响几何？黄立冲表示，维持全年下跌5%的预测。他认为，香港开发商每年推出的新单位数量，加上积压的存货，或许超过了市场的正常吸纳能力。即使有本地刚需、内地买家的支持，这些供应压力也难以在短期内得到有效缓解。此外，内地买家涌入后，香港本地居民可能加速卖楼，二手盘抛盘加剧市场供应过剩问题。建议内地客户在考虑赴港买房时，应深入了解香港楼市的实际情况，特别是供需关系、价格趋势、经济环境等因素。

华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘表示，香港有其独特的优势和竞争力，如租金回报率较高、多重优势下人口流入，但租金回报率较高本身不成为房价上升的理由，还要看其相对于通胀预期和真实利率的变化。近年来，随着香港加大对人才和资金的吸引力度，香港人口于2022年下半年以来重回上升通道，香港租金回报率趋于上升。但如果降息伴随通胀预期快速下行，真实房贷利率可能上升，香港房贷负担能力则不一定上升。

来源：证券日报

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