最新！全国楼市继续探底，积极信号出现

sanasnoz

房地产市场还在调整，但将趋于改善。

中房报记者 许倩 北京报道
深度调整中的全国楼市，仍在探底。
10月18日，国家统计局最新数据显示，1～9月，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）375035亿元，同比增长3.1%，比1～8月份回落0.1个百分点。分领域看，基础设施投资同比增长6.2%，制造业投资增长6.2%，房地产开发投资同比下降9.1%，且降幅较1～8月扩大0.3个百分点。
值得注意的是，今年1～2月房地产开发投资增速同比下降5.7%，较去年末10%的降幅出现改善信号，但此后几个月，这一指标又掉头下滑，且跌幅逐月扩大。这说明，当下房企投资和扩张信心仍然不足。
从影响开发投资增速的主要指标看，1～9月，房屋施工面积同比下降7.1%，降幅较1～8月持平；房屋新开工面积同比下降23.4%，已连续25个月下跌。这两个指标说明，房企对市场预期依然悲观。
大环境是，房地产销售端和资金端的压力仍然艰巨。
1～9月，商品房销售面积84806万平方米，同比下降7.5%，跌幅较1～8月扩大0.4个百分点；商品房销售额89070亿元，同比下降4.6%，跌幅较1～8月扩大1.4个百分点。
简单测算得出，1～9月，全国商品房均价为10502元/平方米，较1～8月下滑0.6%，全国房价均价已持续4个月下滑。
不过，从单月环比数据看，销售端连续两个月出现积极变化。8月份，商品房销售面积为7386万平方米，环比增长4.8%；9月份，商品房销售面积为10857万平方米，环比增长47%。这也说明，在8月底以来新一轮利好政策加持下，刺激了一部分购房需求入市。
还有一个重要指标也出现好转信号。
9月末，商品房待售面积64537万平方米，同比增长18.3%，已连续25个月正增长，但同时也出现了近4个月来首次环比下降态势。8月末，商品房待售面积为64795万平方米，而9月末环比减少0.4%。随着9月份销售力度加大，楼市去库存成效初显。
但这些转好信号能否持续，楼市是否触底仍存在未知数。同时，房企资金压力仍在加剧，并不断有新的房企债务违约事件出现。
1～9月份，房地产开发企业到位资金98067亿元，同比下降13.5%，降幅较1～8月扩大0.6个百分点。
其中，国内贷款12100亿元，下降11.1%，降幅较1～8月收窄1.7个百分点；自筹资金31252亿元，同比下降21.8%，降幅收窄1.1个百分点；定金及预收款33631亿元，同比下降9.6%，降幅扩大2.3个百分点；个人按揭贷款17028亿元，同比下降6.9%，降幅扩大2.6个百分点。
央行数据显示，9月份，金融机构新增人民币贷款2.31万亿元，同比少增1764亿元，但居民端贷款明显好转，特别是以个人住房贷款为主的中长期贷款同比多增2014亿元，增幅创4月以来新高。这也印证了销售端出现弱复苏信号。
对此，红塔证券宏观研究员杨欣分析称，8月31日以来，“认房不认贷”等政策的落地推动高能级城市楼市回暖，房屋成交增加带动住房贷款投放增多。此外，存量房贷利率统一调整后，居民利息负担减少，提前还贷动力减弱。
但房企融资端仍未激活，资金流仍是靠销售回款支撑。机构数据显示，1～9月80家典型房企累计融资总量为4902.66亿元，同比减少21.64%。其中，9月份，80家典型房企融资总量为353.82亿元，环比减少44.1%，同比减少48.5%，单月融资规模大幅减少。另外，10月将有20笔债券到期，剔除掉已提前赎回的部分，仍有约307亿元到期。
一位业内观察人士称，近期房企融资仍然较为低迷，再加上房地产销售仍未全面复苏，未来仍有可能出现更多房企债务违约事件，流动性问题仍需要行业注意。
楼市不稳，给经济复苏之路增加了难度和阻力。
国家统计局数据显示，前三季度国内生产总值913027亿元，同比增长5.2%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长4.5%，二季度增长6.3%，三季度增长4.9%。从环比看，三季度国内生产总值增长1.3%，比二季度加快0.8个百分点。这是顶住风险挑战、下行压力下取得的成绩。
“我们也要清醒看到，经济领域出现的积极变化有些还是初步的，有些积极变化的可持续性还需要继续观察。经济运行中外部环境和内部需求不足的矛盾还没有根本缓解，经济稳定回升基础还需要继续巩固。下一阶段，还是要狠抓政策落实，进一步夯实经济回升基础。”国家统计局副局长盛来运表示。
从数据表现来看，目前新一轮“救市”效果仍然不及预期，但业内比较一致的看法是，国家“稳楼市”决心坚定，稳楼市是为了稳经济，预计后续仍将有销售端、土地端、金融端等政策“组合拳”陆续出台落地。
正如国家统计局国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖所预期，“房地产市场还在调整，但将趋于改善。”

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