楼市分化明显，房价涨跌不再一概而论，不同城市“买房攻略”不同
房价关系国计民生，一直都是热门话题，都说最近两年房价会跌，但是直到2019下半年，也没见房价跌多少，那会不会只是局部地区下降，其他有潜力的城市还会上升呢？http://p3.pstatp.com/large/pgc-image/da482a21db7f4122825a99f5d78a34ab
一、房价涨跌分化
根据中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数对全国100个城市新建住宅的全样本调查数据，从9月份住宅价格涨跌城市个数来看，64个城市环比上涨，30个城市环比下跌，6个城市与8月持平。与8月相比，9月价格环比上涨的城市数量减少5个；9月价格环比下跌的城市数量增加1个。
从数据可以看出，在严厉的楼市调控下，房价并没有如很多人所盼望的那样，出现大幅度下跌，而是符合“房住不炒”预期，既不大涨也不大跌，调控本就是为了稳定房价，现阶段也只能稳定，我们不能像日本当年那样主动刺破房地产泡沫，只能“挤牙膏”式地慢慢排出楼市中的水分，否则后果不堪设想，日本当年泡沫破灭后，经济发展水平倒退了20年，我们不能也不可能重蹈日本覆辙，因此，要稳定地实现房价软着陆，“房住不炒”是一个必须要长期坚持的过程。
http://p3.pstatp.com/large/dfic-imagehandler/c6faddf2-75f4-448d-a12d-96c579847f9c
二、为何楼市分化明显
楼市确实在分化，一二线城市稳中上涨，但涨幅进一步收窄，三四线城市分化更明显，上涨、回调或停滞并存，为什么会这样？
任泽平先生说过，影响房价的三要素，短期看金融，中期看土地，长期看人口。在一二线城市，是具有“先天优势”的，发达的经济、完善的配套、良好的就业条件，足以吸引更多的人口，同时由于更多中外企业的入驻，尤其是北京、上海等全国中心城市，可谓是“寸土寸金”，土地资源是极其有限的，因此从中长期来看，一二线城市的房价不会下降，而会在稳定中持续微涨。在三四线城市，由于“先天不足”，经济相对落后，配套不完善、就业条件一般，很难吸引人口流入，而且还会被附近省会城市或中心城市“虹吸”，个别三四线城市人口甚至是净流出，即使全面放开了落户限制，对人口的吸引力也极其有限，同时，三四线城市的楼房空置率也很高，房子修好了卖不出去，土地虽然稀缺但并不紧张，因此，从中长期来看，三四线城市的房价会逐步回调。
http://p3.pstatp.com/large/pgc-image/ad0a169f1a1d496ab4be6a8ad8da71ca
三、给购房者的建议
楼市分化明显，购房者怎么办？如果打算在一二线城市买房，只要能买得起，可以及时上车，至少短期来看，一二线城市的房价是比较坚挺的，长期来看也是会上涨的，即使涨得不多也能保值。如果打算在三四线城市买房，小黑个人是不建议买的，如果一定要买，最好也要选择中心商圈或好地段的楼盘，毕竟三四线城市的房价回调可能性较大，我们买房不求升值但至少也要保值，谁也不愿做“接盘侠”。
http://p1.pstatp.com/large/dfic-imagehandler/45e3f695-60a2-4e3b-97e3-d3cae003431a
综上所述，楼市调控趋严，房地产市场疲软，各地楼市分化更加明显，“一城一策”还将延续，房价不会再一概而论，购房者买房除了根据自身经济条件外，也要结合城市发展情况，认真选择，谨慎决定。 买房为了储蓄，为了升值，中国人太喜欢储蓄了。
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