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楼市分化明显,房价涨跌不再一概而论,不同城市“买房攻略”不同

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发表于 2019-10-27 19:29:30 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
房价关系国计民生,一直都是热门话题,都说最近两年房价会跌,但是直到2019下半年,也没见房价跌多少,那会不会只是局部地区下降,其他有潜力的城市还会上升呢?



一、房价涨跌分化

根据中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数对全国100个城市新建住宅的全样本调查数据,从9月份住宅价格涨跌城市个数来看,64个城市环比上涨,30个城市环比下跌,6个城市与8月持平。与8月相比,9月价格环比上涨的城市数量减少5个;9月价格环比下跌的城市数量增加1个。

从数据可以看出,在严厉的楼市调控下,房价并没有如很多人所盼望的那样,出现大幅度下跌,而是符合“房住不炒”预期,既不大涨也不大跌,调控本就是为了稳定房价,现阶段也只能稳定,我们不能像日本当年那样主动刺破房地产泡沫,只能“挤牙膏”式地慢慢排出楼市中的水分,否则后果不堪设想,日本当年泡沫破灭后,经济发展水平倒退了20年,我们不能也不可能重蹈日本覆辙,因此,要稳定地实现房价软着陆,“房住不炒”是一个必须要长期坚持的过程。



二、为何楼市分化明显

楼市确实在分化,一二线城市稳中上涨,但涨幅进一步收窄,三四线城市分化更明显,上涨、回调或停滞并存,为什么会这样?

任泽平先生说过,影响房价的三要素,短期看金融,中期看土地,长期看人口。在一二线城市,是具有“先天优势”的,发达的经济、完善的配套、良好的就业条件,足以吸引更多的人口,同时由于更多中外企业的入驻,尤其是北京、上海等全国中心城市,可谓是“寸土寸金”,土地资源是极其有限的,因此从中长期来看,一二线城市的房价不会下降,而会在稳定中持续微涨。在三四线城市,由于“先天不足”,经济相对落后,配套不完善、就业条件一般,很难吸引人口流入,而且还会被附近省会城市或中心城市“虹吸”,个别三四线城市人口甚至是净流出,即使全面放开了落户限制,对人口的吸引力也极其有限,同时,三四线城市的楼房空置率也很高,房子修好了卖不出去,土地虽然稀缺但并不紧张,因此,从中长期来看,三四线城市的房价会逐步回调。



三、给购房者的建议

楼市分化明显,购房者怎么办?如果打算在一二线城市买房,只要能买得起,可以及时上车,至少短期来看,一二线城市的房价是比较坚挺的,长期来看也是会上涨的,即使涨得不多也能保值。如果打算在三四线城市买房,小黑个人是不建议买的,如果一定要买,最好也要选择中心商圈或好地段的楼盘,毕竟三四线城市的房价回调可能性较大,我们买房不求升值但至少也要保值,谁也不愿做“接盘侠”。



综上所述,楼市调控趋严,房地产市场疲软,各地楼市分化更加明显,“一城一策”还将延续,房价不会再一概而论,购房者买房除了根据自身经济条件外,也要结合城市发展情况,认真选择,谨慎决定。
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发表于 2019-10-27 19:30:05 | 显示全部楼层
买房为了储蓄,为了升值,中国人太喜欢储蓄了。
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