永远有多远?房地产市场的未来
房价会降吗?随着楼市的低迷,市场上出现了各种声音。有人说房价会持续下跌,也有人说微跌是大涨的前奏。面对纷繁复杂的声音,投资者该如何把握房价变化的趋势?东方证券房地产行业首席分析师竺劲先生,在第十二届中国金融理财师年会上发表了精彩演讲,通过剖析中、美、日三个国家的房地产市场的历史变化,为大家解读国内房地产的焦点问题——中国的房地产市场还行不行?未来该如何投资等等。我国的房地产市场处于哪个阶段?竺劲表示,从1900年以来,全球的主要重点城市没有出现过人口下降的情况,除了战乱。1945年,东京大轰炸,东京人口出现过下降,之后从来都没有。中国有过上山下乡,出现过城市人口的下降。从1900年以来,全球所有的大城市,包括伦敦、纽约、巴黎、法兰克福等城市都没有出现过下降。所以人口向大城市积聚,它是一种人类现象,不是中国的现象,大家一定要注意,今天中国人口还在向大城市积聚。日本人很焦虑,他们说怎么都来东京,东京人越来越多,学校都在东京,我不来东京去哪里。就业都在东京,不去东京去哪里。我们看到城市的大型化是城镇化的第一个阶段,相对是比较明显的现象,城市化的第一阶段,一般在30%-50%,就是城市化率。如果大家关心城市化就会知道,2018年中国的城市化大概是60%左右的水平。第二个阶段叫都市圈化,表现为城市越来越大,大城市会出现一定程度的逆城市化,带来周围卫星城的发展,都市圈在我们国家很多城市已经出现,清华大学研究院也出过文章,中国有34个都市圈,华夏幸福产业研究院也提出有31个都市圈。总体而言,中国的都市圈主要围绕着省会城市发生,他的都市圈比全球其他国家更明显。在城市化率达70%以上,一般叫城市化的3.0,或者叫第三阶段,他表现为都市连绵区,一般是两个或者三个。比如国内常常提到的长三角、珠三角,有时候会把京津冀加上,实际上京津冀还是都市圈。美国目前有很多大城市出现了明显的衰落,比如说美国芝加哥,在美国的中北部地区已经出现人口下降,因为人口很多,出现了比较严重的问题。但是美国在东北地区,以纽约为代表,依然呈现为连绵带,从美国纽约到费城,一路上都是城市。包括美国旧金山、洛杉矶和圣地亚哥,在加州也形成了城市连绵带。中国长三角的连绵带更明显,以苏州、上海、杭州为代表,他们都连成了一线。在城市化率比较高的区域,依然表现为城市之间人口腾挪的现象,从而重新决定当地房地产的价格。从城镇化的演进态势来看,中国目前主要在第二个阶段,也就是都市圈化的阶段。http://p1.pstatp.com/large/pgc-image/2178dd3964464b9ab21026083dc6f9a2
未来在哪里投资房产获得的收益更高?竺劲认为,从未来来讲,房地产的主要投资区域,应该是经济比较强劲的二线城市和部分强三线城市。核心都市圈北、上、广、深跟周边房价的关系已经很明显。以北京为例,其周围大厂的房价已经超过了西安。未来都市圈继续大量引进交通基础设施、轨道交通,这将很大程度上影响周边资产的价格。从未来来看,房屋价格的同化仍然是一种趋势,价格溢出是比较明显的。比如,不少人在中心城市找工作,即便没有钱,他们也会考虑在中心城市周边买房子,继续在这个中心城市打工。年龄大一点的人应该看过《东京爱情故事》,讲的是日本人在90年到95年的阶段,房地产泡沫已经破灭,但是来东京打工的年青人依然没有办法买得起东京的房子,年轻人依然打算把青春挥洒在东京,最终男一号、男二号都回家了,他们青春都在那里,租金都交给了业主。说明一线城市的吸附力远远超出大家的想象,即使我们从行政的角度还在进一步疏散人口,实际上这些城市的流动人口规模远远高于大家的想象。这意味着一线城市已经成为中国人民心中的图腾,必须把自己的青春和事业放在一线城市,因为它是一个最终的居住地。从未来来讲,围绕着一线城市,它的资产价格会非常高。有一些区域的二线城市,一方面有本身的人口红利,因为二线城市往往是这个地方的区域中心城市,它能够大量的吸附人口。另一方面,重点发展二线城市是目前中国的国策,都市圈也不是只有一线城市。大家一定要关心中心城市的发展。中国都市圈,未来核心二线城市和远郊不错,核心二线城市的卫星城能涨,大家作为投资者去买,以后不一定卖得掉,要看看这个地方能不能变成城市。集中化、规模化仍是中国城市发展的趋势吗?竺劲将中、美两国进行对比,讲述了城市发展变化对房地产市场的影响。美国城市化的第一个阶段,叫单核大城市,往往是以一个园区域发展的,后来变成区域城镇体系,有点像都市圈,但又不一样。而区域城镇体系,有点像广州和深圳之间的关系。大都市区化的城镇结构体系,这就相当于广州跟清远或者番禺的关系;又好比深圳跟周边惠阳的关系,与大鹏新区新区、龙华新区的关系,叫大都市渠化的城镇结构体系。竺劲指出,大家要重视目前城市内部的区域规划,以前投资房地产是全国投资,只要买了,随便一个房都可以。以后要考虑在一个城市或者区域,哪个地方是洼地以后可能会有利好,比如说规划、产业落地、基础设施、轨道交通的建设、教育的落地,这些是未来要去思考的。2000年以后,美国形成了很明显的都市连绵区,70%以上的人口的经济增长都集中在这10个都市连绵区,很明显,整体的城市化率达到90%,百万人口以上的有39个,人口占比占到全国的70%。也就是说,只要管好这10个连绵区,美国的房地产,美国的经济可能就没有问题。中国以后也是一样的,把31个都市圈管好了,中国经济房地产都没有任何问题。这意味着什么?以后区域会越来越大。现在很多城市、地级市都在并区,以后这个趋势会越来越明显。我们在各行各业都能看到,这种集中度的提升,既是分工的需要,也是管理的需要,也是经济发展阶段的需要。所以未来城市的规模只会越来越大。未来大家一定要关注两个方面,区域中心越来越强化,同时向周围蔓延。第二,有很多新兴的区域也许有机会。大家不要太担心中国房地产不好了,不好的地方是他的区域经济出现问题了,负债过度没有产业,产业空心化人口流出,不是中国整体房地产都不行了,中国房地产问题是结构问题,总量问题,目前来看不应该是认为有问题的。http://p3.pstatp.com/large/pgc-image/6c20512c69ce4317ae13e35e5a2cbcca
中国房地产市场规模会缩减?不少人很直观的感受就是:最近几年房子“卖不动”了。这是不是意味着中国房地产市场的规模在缩减?竺劲阐述了自己的观点,他认为,从总量的角度来看,中国房地产市场维持在15万亿以上的规模,例如去年的规模是17亿平米,15万亿的规模可能维持五年、十年。因为结构发生变化,很多四线城市不开发都不行了,很多四线城市县城,未来的县城很有可能是现在的农村。大家去农村可以看到,很多自然村都没有了,学校也关了,不是我们把它关了,人走光了,以后县城人也会走光了。如果区域合并了,大家不去地级市工作生活吗?去那儿工作生活,还把房子留在老家吗?中国总量的房地产市场可能会维持15万亿的规模,但是面积会有所下降,因为单价变高了,更多的人到了更好的城市生活,他可能把原来的房子卖了,或者自己又赚了钱,在好的城市生活。中国房地产金额不会有太大的变化,但是单价会提高,面积会有所下滑。具体要看政策,政府对政策的管控能力,对地产市场的管控能力。中国房地产市场的问题和增长点在哪里?竺劲表示,目前,房地产市场客观现实是杠杆率下降,投资收益没有原来那么高。在“房住不炒”的政策落实下去之后,房价涨幅仅仅体现于部分区域,比如说摇号,买不到房子,新房价开的相对低。但是新房价格开得低,对二手房有一定的引导作用。二手房有一个很关键的是土地价格,土地价格太高了,大家觉得这个地方二手房很有可能要涨。现在一方面控低价;另一方面控新房销售价格,通过这两个价格的下行带来房地产市场的价格比较稳定。南京六合区出政策,限购减弱,实际上说明什么?从政府的角度,他希望房地产价格稳定,甚至上涨,地方政府跟中央政府的冲突是存在的。在这样的情况下怎么做最好?既能满足地方的需求,因为地方要发展,又能解决掉房价的目标,又能让开发商进来开发,只有一个办法——搞新区。比如国家级新区,它的价格还不错,加上这个地方的房地产可能受到了调控,这些区域可以进行关注。核心问题是什么?在货币政策没有明显的宽松,未来很难做宽松,加上对房地产市场也是调控为主,我们看到商品房销售面积的弹性已经没有了。到了2017年,调控下来以后,如果大家算一算单月增速,就会发现在-10和10之间波动,销售之间不存在大起大落,每个月都差不多,今年跟去年的房地产销售面积基本持平。前几天统计局刚出的数据,中国房地产销售面积增长-0.1%。大家感觉今年没去年市场好,但还是卖了这么多。中国房地产市场的情况是,现在60%的城市化率,成熟的城镇化率是70%,每年城市化率增加的是0.8%,12年才能完成60%-70%。都市圈化的阶段能持续十年,东边不亮西边亮,大家不要怀疑房价是不是出现暴涨暴跌,它不会出现,是平稳的,平稳给大家一个机会,哪里买的人多,哪里经济增长好,它就能起来。楼市结构分化比较明显,这个分化跟我刚才讲的同化没有矛盾。我说的分化是不同能级之间出现了明显的轮动,说明我们总量上不去了,只能在不同城市之间抢人。一线行政调控更严重,大家买房比例很高,户籍准入和限购都比较严格,二线城市相对松一些,未来重点在二线城市,很多三四线城市也面临下滑的趋势。2020年三四线城市的压力会进一步增大,中央大范围的放松政策还看不到,很有可能明年两会会有一些变化。中国房地产市场在总量上不会太大波动,政策上也不希望有大的波动,所以现在还在调控。中国五大城市群占到中国人口的40%,这还没有把关中城市圈,像西宁、兰州、西安这些加进去。新房销售占58%,机会都在五大城市群。31个都市圈占有3.9%的国土面积承载30%的人口规模。都市圈的划分主要以省会城市为主。都市圈的GDP占到了50%。http://p1.pstatp.com/large/pgc-image/6d2498bf94c84b8baaba17ff3b8fbb9f
如何辨别一个“都市圈”或城市的房地产市场是否有潜力?竺劲表示,未来房地产的发展将围绕着城市群和都市圈,尤其是都市圈做文章。为什么这么说呢?大城市人口2000万以上就有需求,周围才会发展起来。去年很多城市刚超过1000万,比如杭州刚超过1000万,这些城市每年的人口流入大约是50万,这些城市的人口未来达到2000万问题不大。按1000万来算,每年50万的净流入,需要20年时间,所以都市圈化的发展是持续的。大家买房子做投资,一定要买在都市圈的核心区域的旁边,中心城市的远郊,或者在都市体系当中距离中心城市比较近,或者经济实力比较强。开始就跟大家讲了是什么决定了价格。除了北京和上海,未来经济比较好的二线城市,像南京、杭州等房地产前景都会不错。都市圈的发展跟产业相关。比如上海浦东的房价高于浦西,浦东有两个引擎,一个叫陆家嘴,一个叫张江高科园,是这两个地方工作的人把房价搞起来的。网上微信公众号写北京的“海淀牛娃”,主要都是上地来的,是一个道理。人在哪里,收入高的人在哪里,哪里的价格就能起的来,当然要有规划投入。大家要考虑产业的互动,产业的互动才能带来定居。否则产业不稳定,大家不可能考虑定居,因为收入不高。有很多人说杭州不行了,他们认为杭州主要靠阿里马云搞起来的。但竺劲却持有不同观点,他认为,杭州后续的发展主要来自于金融投资和生物医疗,杭州的生物医疗、养老、医疗器械在全国排名非常靠前。现在互联网红利还没结束,杭州在互联网发展之后的新的红利,现在杭州的房价是不高的。为什么这么讲呢,这跟东京的逻辑是一样的,石化工业转化成电子和汽车,再转型成金融,只要下面有一个街区的产业,这个城市的发展就会比较大,他的资产价格就能上来。有几个方面:一、收入;二、现在大家都搞科创板、股市融资,很多人通过创业的形式获取很多的财富,就能把房价搞起来。之前深圳南山的房价低于福田,现在比福田要高,为什么?大量企业上市带来的影响。杭州是所有城市当中,新增上市公司近两年最多的,未来也会很多。所以产业很重要,大家判定一个城市有没有前途,有没有希望,要看这个城市的产业未来能不能做起来。从数据上看一下未来房地产市场,中国未来的都市圈房地产市场有多大。从全国住宅市场规模来看,2008年到2018年这十年间上涨了6倍,把核心城市的加上周围的,从0.8万亿涨到6万亿。整个都市圈的房地产市场规模,核心区域的市场大概占到4万亿,外溢市场2万亿,大概是6万亿,大概占到全国的一半儿。都市圈的发展会非常明显,在经济发展不好的情况下,中心城市的远郊,离核心区比较近的城区,上涨的相对快一些,保存的程度高一些。如果经济好一点,或者货币放的多一点,外溢区卫星城的发展会比较明显。
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