楼市走到现在,说4句心里话
楼市“小阳春”虽然不如预期,但关心楼市的人还是不少,这几天不断有读者向我咨询楼市走向的事。总结起来,不外乎几个问题:
比如,房子老了,现在不好卖,后面还有回升的空间吗?或者是说还要跌?
还比如说,现在到底是不是买房时机,有没有可能抄底抄在半山腰?
有两套房子价格相比前两年跌了30%了,现在想换新房,低价卖掉现房不心甘,又担心看中的新房折扣收回咋办?
当然,还有其他问题。研究楼市这么久,针对目前的市场情况和现象,想说4句心里话,同样以问题的形式聊聊,希望能够回答读者朋友们经常关心的问题。
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第一句,楼市真实情况到底怎么样?
现在市场舆论有两个方向:
一个是一些自媒体为了流量竭力唱空楼市,另一个是官媒呵护楼市。
前者好理解,反正说这里跌了几千、那里跌了几万,总能博得一些人的眼球,有流量就有收入,至于真实市场不是他们关心的。
后者就更容易理解了,因为国家目前对楼市的态度就是促进市场平稳,起码先要止跌,然后才能谈其他的。目前所有的政策都是围绕这个来做的,作为官媒,代表了国家对楼市的意志。比如北京日报3月27日就发表了题为“别用特例唱衰北京楼市”。
作为一个正常人,肯定是希望了解真实的楼市现状。现状是什么呢?
1.二手房成交量确实比年前有明显增长,但主要是以降价换取的成交量,说白了,你要变现一套房子,往往都是小区的最低价格,这个没什么好说的,现在就是这个市场氛围。
2.新房市场确实不尽如人意,开年这段时间,龙头开发商的销售额同比下降了约30%,虽然去年同期基数比较高,但即便打些折扣,销售下滑的态势仍旧明显。所以,不要听一些媒体说楼盘有多火爆,性价比再高的楼盘,卖不完是事实,大多数楼盘都不敢加推更是事实。
3.置换动弹不得。老房子很难卖,如果狠心打骨折卖的话,买新房要加很多钱,一些人索性就不动了,想等等市场走向明朗,这类人占有相当大的比重。
4.还有一部分人手里好几套房子,想等市场回暖些卖掉,不玩了,小心脏受不了,这也是为什么很多城市的二手房挂牌量高企的原因,你卖掉一套,还有第二套、三套挂出来。
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第二句,楼市到底能不能回暖?
现在促进楼市恢复的措施越来越多,可以说是眼花缭乱,但真正能一招制敌的方法并不多。整理起来,大概5条路径:
1.以降低房贷利率、提高公积金贷款额度、发放购房补贴、放开购房资格、贷款等方面的限制,这主要是从需求端刺激购房者入市。
2.各城市以城中村改造为抓手,尽可能地启动拆迁。这个道理都懂,上一轮去楼市库存就是棚改启动拆迁,效果确实是立竿见影,大家手里有钱了,对楼市的需求刺激非常明显。但需要说明的一点,之前是国开行发放了大量的贷款启动拆迁,但现在地方债务都比较庞大,所以,如果城市本身财力不行的话,拆迁的力度和范围都会比较小。一般说来,大城市在这方面有优势一些。
3.收购存量房去库存。今年一些地方已经在这么做了,一个是国家试点的8个城市,发放贷款用于收购卖不掉的楼盘,直接用作保障房。另一个是地方国资收购存量房用作保障房,这种方式同样考验地方的财力,大城市在这方面肯定还是有优势一些。
4.通过放开一线城市需求带动其他城市市场。通过两年的楼市政策优化,二线及以下能放松的政策基本都出了,即便有个别城市还象征性的保留主城区限购资格,只要真要买房,其实都是可以变通的,不过是保留最后一点颜面罢了。
所以,现在只有不断放松一线城市的限购资格,最近接二连三的小步快跑式放松就是最好的例证,说白了,只有一线城市率先回暖,其他地方才有可能被传导,否则,一天到晚都在说大城市这里降了、那里跌了,其他小弟怎么混?结果可想而知。
5.土拍带动。开年以来,包括合肥、杭州等城市土拍不断有新地王诞生,在3月27日一天内还诞生了3个地王,分别是苏州、厦门和宁波。这不是巧合,更像是与当下提振楼市的目标不谋而合。根据中指院的数据显示,截至3月26日,2024年第一季度全国土地出让金同比增长了10.4%,平均楼面价同比增长了23.5%。按理说,无论新房市场,还是二手房市场都不咋地,开发商怎么还敢积极高价拿地呢?不合常理。
但如果你看看具体的地块就知道,各城市都拿出了最核心的地块,此前多年不供地的老城区、主城区域地块都拿出来卖了,而且还把容积率定得老低,原因很明显,其他区域反正也没人要,就把这些压箱底拿出来卖,这些基本都是豪宅的胚子,自然会受到房企们喜欢,出现地王也就不足为奇了。说明两点,一是地方需要土地财政,二是通过高价地带动市场人气和预期,为回暖楼市助力。
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看出来没有,由于房地产与过去面对的形势不一样,单一的措施无法达到促稳的目的,现在是改为采取组合拳的策略,相对于过去的一招制敌,发挥作用的周期肯定要长一些,市场肯定会回暖,但需要等待。
第三句,如何判断楼市是更差还是真回暖了?
观察判断楼市的指标起码有十多个,对普通人来说,没那么多时间去研究,就说一个最为关键的指标:所在城市楼市去化周期。
啥叫城市楼市去化周期(可在各地官方网上房地产查此数据)?用白话理解就是,按照目前楼市的新房库存量/目前一个月的去化套数。比如说,你所在城市新房库存量8万套,目前一个月销量是5000套,需要16个月去化完毕。这个数据到底是高了还是低了呢?
一般来说,大多数城市的楼市供需平衡线是10-12个月,很显然,16个月是高于供需平衡线的,意味着供大于求,属于买方市场,主动权在购房者这一方,开发商只能优惠促销,但如果再过两个月,当月的销量达到8000套了,那意味着只需要10个月就能去化完毕,达到供需平衡线,如果再往下,市场就很可能出现供不应求,天平转向卖方市场,这个时候,开发商就有收回折扣并提价的动机,房价易涨。反之亦然。
当然,少数城市供需平衡线不是10-12个月,要么高点,要么低点,到了这点,市场就会有反应。用去化周期对比供需平衡线,去检验楼市走冷或者走热是非常有效的,你不要管这里中介吹、那里媒体喊,说涨到天、跌到-18层都不要管,数据不会说谎,你只看城市楼市去化周期就行。
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第四句,假如楼市回升,自己的房产价值可能怎么走?
这个应该是很多人都在关心的一个问题。管他东西南北风,我知道自己的房子价值如何走就行。决定这方面的其实主要就看这两个。
一是房地产发展趋势。
人少,房多,这是眼下房地产最明显的状态,你要问身边谁家没房,老实说,真的不多,他可能在这个城市没有,但在其他城市是有的,而一个城市里,一家好几套房子的人比比皆是,要不有调查数据说,有近一半的城市家庭都有2套及以上房产,除了几大一线城市,一个三口之家平均1套半房是主流。
但我们知道,在一座城市,住一套房子也就足够了,多余的房子,其实就是期待能保值增值,一旦遇到市场不行,亏的就是自家的财富。一般来说,好点的房子都是自己住,差点的房子就用来出租或者售卖,所以,多出来的房子往往都不是那么受欢迎,其价值也不如前者,往往以老房子、刚需房为主。
二是政策。
最近大家应该关注到一个动向,住建部要试点建设好房子,在房地产领域开辟一个新赛道,毫无疑问,随着城市化进入最后的1/5阶段,刚需锐减,人们对住房的需求向改善过渡,不需要再建那么多刚需房了。有3个政策可以佐证:自然资源部取消远郊1.0的别墅限制、取消土拍限价,各城开始取消90/70户型配比政策,各省、市修改容积率规定,今后普遍供应低密住宅。
房地产长期看人口、看政策,我们不能对眼下政策导向变化视而不见。说直白点,人人都需要好房子,但以前人口增长快,鸽子笼建起来容纳人口多,但现在人口变少了,有这个条件供应改善地块了。就像一个家庭一样,养两个孩子与养一个孩子,提供给孩子的条件是完全不同的。
一句话,未来楼市发展方向是低密改善产品,大高层被人唾弃的趋势越来越明显,无论曾经有多么豪,在低密面前几乎是没有还手之力的。说这话,有的人可能不爱听,但希望能早入耳,当大家都意识过来之时,那将是相当惨烈的。
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