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各地楼市的微妙变化你察觉到了吗?

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发表于 2019-10-25 22:48:17 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
今日,国家统计局发布了2019年9月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。9月新房价格环比,上涨城市为53个,环比上月55个减少2个城市,上涨城市数量连续4个月减少,上涨城市平均涨幅0.75%,环比涨幅收窄0.05个百分点。二手住宅方面,上涨城市数量为40个,比上月相比减少3个城市,上涨城市平均涨幅为0.78%,涨幅环比扩大0.11个百分点。
数据分析师国仕英分析,通过70城新房、二手房销售价格环比涨跌城市数量来看,9月上涨城市数量持续在减少。可见受市场调控影响,部分价格涨幅过快的城市或热点一二线城市加入下跌城市中。
“金九”期间,新房市场房企为了回笼资金,纷纷降价或者打折促销,使得新建商品住宅销售价格涨幅收窄或更多城市加入下跌行列。
总体来看,楼市的降温已然来临,“金九”不金,房价“银十”大面积上涨的趋势将得到明显缓解,新房上涨的趋势减少会更为明显。
与此同时,近期地方频频传出楼市限购松绑、及全国各地近期出台的公积金新政结合来看,各地楼市“小刺激”不断,出现一些趋于放松的导向。
和讯房产今日为粉丝整理了各地楼市新政的变化的详情,同时也整理出一份9月起,各地楼市趋于放松的新政内容表格。
南京、天津(楼盘)、三亚(楼盘)同一天放松限购
首先是10月15日,南京(楼盘)、天津、三亚三地在同日放出放松限购的消息。
据媒体报道,南京外围城区六合区外地人购房将不再要求社保或税证明,满足大专以上学历等条件即可购房。
从此次放松的情况看,是有一定条件的,即学历方面需要满足大专等学历,这也符合对相关人才购房的优惠导向。而按照过去的政策,外地人在六合买房是需要满足2年社保缴纳条件的,这也说明当前针对人才等群体采取了定向放宽的导向,有助于激活相关群体的购房需求。
而同一天,天津发改委发布关于对《关于天津市促进承接北京(楼盘)非首都功能项目发展的政策措施(试行)》征求意见的公告,天津为承接非首都功能项目,暂未入津家庭可购房。包括鼓励人才来津工作落户,优化子女教育保障,便利医疗医保服务,完善投融资扶持,财政收入及统计指标分配,加大来津企业奖励和支持力度和支持在津购房等七方面共9项措施。其中明确对户籍暂未迁入天津市的职工,其家庭在天津无住房的,可在本市购买住房1套,不再提供在津社会保险或税证明。以上措施,在天津滨海中关村(000931,股吧)科技园、宝坻中关村科技城试行,试行期限为一年。此举被当成是放松调控的先兆。
紧接着是一直实施严格限购政策的三亚,10月15日,三亚住建局发布《关于进一步完善人才住房政策的通知》,文件内容显示:
全日制大专以上学历(全日制)+海南(楼盘)工作证明,即可买房无需落户。
不用个税或社保证明,直接网签,以家庭为单位,可以买一套。
而此前,三亚实施严格的限购政策,非本省户籍居民家庭购房,须提供至少一名家庭成员在海南省累计5年及以上个税或社保缴纳证明。
再回顾至一周前的10月8日,宿州市的住建委在官微发布《关于推进农业转移人口市民化致全市人民群众的一封信》,也引发了不小的轰动。文件提到全面放开城镇落户,取消一切门槛,不仅如此,农业转移人口在主城区购买首套商品住房、办理不动产登记证并落户,对缴纳的契税给予全额财政补贴。
广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为,宿州对农民进城落户、人才、务工人员等,启动补贴,或者“契税全免”。学历的走“人才通道”,没有学历的走“务工人员通道”,进城农民有“农民通道”,总有一款适合你,宿州首套房新政涵盖面之广、力度之大,罕见!
同日,扬州(楼盘)住房公积金相关政策上也提出新规,贷款限额从35万元恢复至50万元。扬州住房公积金管理中心发布关于《恢复住房公积金贷款最高限额的通知》,通知指出,为充分发挥住房公积金的作用,帮助城镇中低收入职工解决住房困难,支持刚性住房需求,从2019年10月15日起,将扬州市住房公积金贷款最高限额从35万元恢复至50万元(单职工缴存住房公积金的,最高限额从21万元恢复至30万元);将住房公积金贷款还贷能力系数由目前的0.3上调为0.5。其他贷款使用政策不变。
有媒体报道,扬州市住房公积金管理中心相关负责人表示,此前扬州住房公积金贷款最高额度曾为50万元,近期中心账户稍有剩余,考虑到市民群众尤其是中低收入职工的购房需求,中心决定恢复此前的最高额度50万元。
该负责人还提出,目前全省其它城市住房公积金贷款最高额度有高于50万元的,也有低于50万元的,金额不一。从房价上看,扬州低于南京、苏州(楼盘)和南通(楼盘),部分指数和无锡(楼盘)、常州(楼盘)持平或略有高低,高于此外的其它城市。
专家:人才政策的确影响房地产市场但稳定才是主旋律
广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉提出,近期,越来越多三四线城市开始松绑调控政策,比如汕头(楼盘)也提高了公积金贷款的额度,取消贷款轮候等。
李宇嘉认为,顺着这套逻辑,搜肠刮肚地找行得通的松绑政策,公积金也算一个。首先,公积金贷款政策变化,对市场的影响有限,无论收紧还是放宽,起不到什么实质性作用。但信号意义太重要了;其次,市场下行了,公积金池子的水位高了,有钱自然能提高额度。而且,公积金贷款利率低,额度提高,不就能为农业人口城镇化,提供低成本的资金吗?这也是“降成本”改革。
据中原地产研究中心统计数据显示,9月单月,已经超过30城发布了各种人才引入政策,年内累计有超过150城发布了各种人才政策,与2018年同期相比上涨超过40%。
中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为,产业对人才的需求,导致了在2018年人才政策井喷后,2019年继续大规模出现城市吸引人才政策。但大部分城市的人才政策的确会影响房地产市场,特别是天津这种落户难度相对较大的区域。
不过,像上海临港(600848,股吧)这样的新片区最近的房产成交数据,时刻提醒着想要靠房地产牟取高额利益的人群,需要谨慎。8月6日,商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表王受文在介绍上海(楼盘)自贸试验区新片区总体方案的新闻发布会上宣布,外地人在临港购房,只需3年社保(市区外地人买房需5年社保)的情况下,临港楼市热只维持了1个月(8月新房销售环比大涨148.94%)。9月份,临港板块成交(5.57万平米)环比暴跌了43.3%。
总之,同时市场的分化还将持续,部分三四线城市还可能继续降温,而例如一线城市的热点区域,供需两旺的新一线城市,依然持续保持热度。此外,房产研究院首席分析师张波提出,区域性的房产政策也会对该地区市场带来影响有限的波动,但下半年楼市过热的机率依然较小,稳定将是市场的主旋律。



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