多地楼市销售金额由降转升 四季度调控政策仍将趋稳
楼市“金九银十”即将收尾,市场如何演变?未来政策微调会否增多?“一城一策”如何推进?进入2019年四季度后的中国楼市,诸多疑问仍然待解。近日,多地披露当地楼市三季报,虽然偶有起伏较大地区,但总体上销售面积和销售金额均出现进一步回暖。广东省统计局近日表示,2019年前三季度,广东商品房销售面积降幅收窄,在“金九银十”销售旺季带动下,广东商品房销售市场好转,前三季度商品房销售面积同比下降3.2%,降幅比上半年收窄0.5个百分点。前三季度,湖南全省商品房实现销售额3546.88亿元,同比增长2.5%,扭转了今年以来销售额增速持续下降的形势。湖南省统计局分析称,销售额增速回升,主要得益于全省商品房销售面积下降情况有所改善。前三季度,湖南省商品房销售面积5845.52万平方米,同比下降1.7%,降幅比上半年收窄5.1个百分点,比一季度收窄8.4个百分点。其中,张家界、娄底、邵阳等8个市州实现商品房销售面积正增长。安徽省统计局新闻发言人赵金宝透露,前三季度安徽省商品房销售面积6696.1万平方米,下降4.5%;商品房销售额4969.4亿元,增长1%。除了上述较为平稳地区外,也有一些地方波动较大,冷热两极化。10月23日,海南省统计局副局长王渊表示,前三季度,海南省房地产开发投资同比下降28.1%,房屋销售面积584.95万平方米,同比下降48.6%;房屋销售额928.92亿元,同比下降44.6%。楼市的波动也给海南经济发展带来一定影响。“要看到,当前我省经济仍然面临国内、国际严峻复杂经济形势以及我省房地产调控三重压力。”王渊称。变化较大的还有北京。今年前三季度,北京市商品房销售面积为584.9万平方米,同比增长43.7%。其中,住宅销售面积为495.1万平方米,增长62.2%。虽然与国内其他地区相比,北京楼市依然处于旺销状态,但与上半年相比,整体增速也已出现明显放缓。今年上半年,北京市商品房销售面积为387.9万平方米,同比增长68.7%。其中,住宅销售面积为330万平方米,增长1倍。北京楼市销售的增幅放缓,与当地房地产调控长期保持较紧的尺度不无关系。第一太平戴维斯华北区市场研究部负责人李想表示,三季度往往是楼市传统销售旺季,但北京一手普通住宅市场并未因旺季的到来而出现销售额暴涨的情况。第三季度,一手普通住宅市场供应基本保持稳定,成交面积为134.99万平方米,环比下降31.8%、同比上升26.9%。他认为,目前北京住宅市场的调控仍然保持趋严态势,尤其是中央明确表态“不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段”后,无论是开发商还是潜在购房者对当前楼市的心理预期已开始调整。“不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段”,这段话出自今年7月30日的中央政治局会议。对于房地产,此次会议要求,坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位,落实房地产长效管理机制,不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段。由于政策对房地产业影响较大,因此,业界格外关注中央一些重要会议对房地产方面的相关表述。从2017年7月24日至2019年7月30日,以经济为主要议题的中央政治局会议已经召开八次。除了2018年10月31日和2018年12月13日两次会议未提及外,其他六次会议都对房地产市场作出了明确表述。易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进表示,从7月份政治局会议针对房地产的表述看,进一步明确了房地产的市场角色,即房地产不应该是刺激经济的工具,各地对于房地产市场的定位,依然需要强化其消费品的概念,即房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的。各地发展房地产要更多考虑房地产背后的消费需求,而不应该和经济刺激等做过多的挂钩。李想也表示,中国已经告别了经济增速过度依赖房地产的时代;房价永远快速上涨不符合经济和社会规律,中央的宏观调控政策更多的是确保房地产市场健康平稳的发展,随着长效机制逐步确立,房地产市场将逐步回归理性,其角色也将调整为“为全社会创造良好的置业、工作及生活环境”。楼市销售和投资数据的平稳,也给未来调控政策保持相对稳定提供了基础。今年前9个月,全国商品房销售面积119179万平方米,同比下降0.1%,降幅比1-8月份收窄0.5个百分点。商品房销售额111491亿元,增长7.1%,增速加快0.4个百分点。http://p1.pstatp.com/large/pgc-image/RftaqtO6jUdWma对于前三季度房地产市场走势,国家统计局新闻发言人毛盛勇表示,“房地产的定位很明确房住不炒,也不把房地产作为短期拉动刺激经济的手段。房地产的发展,总的来看是平稳、健康、有序的。”不过,不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段,并非意味着经济发展不再需要房地产。2019年1~9月,全国房地产开发投资98008亿元,同比增长10.5%。而同期全国固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长5.4%。恒大集团首席经济学家、恒大研究院院长任泽平称,房地产对中国经济增长的托底作用还是很大的,更何况中国城镇化率只有60%,未来更多的要靠长效机制和住房制度改革来推动房地产市场发展。李想也认为,房地产开发投资在固定资产投资中比重很高,短期内难以找到相当体量的替代性产业,长期来看行业将会实现稳定发展。但房地产行业的经济支柱作用在减弱。房地产市场未来的规模、销售交易量会下降,从各地实践来看,过度依赖房地产拉动经济基本上也难以持久。“虽然房地产业仍然是国民经济重要产业,但其重要性已在逐渐减弱。“李想称。在这种大的背景下,此前一些城市试图直接放松楼市调控的举措大多被紧急叫停。李想认为,虽然房地产调控现在实行因城施策,一城一策,允许地方根据实际情况微调政策,但也要符合中央的大方向,一旦与中央总体目标不符,被叫停的可能性依然很大。中国社科院财经战略研究院住房大数据项目组23日报告预计,2019年底前,房地产调控政策可能会出现边际性、局部性放松,但难以出现全面转向。而在市场下行预期下,即使房地产调控政策有边际放松,短时间内也难以对房价产生提振作用。近期,一些城市发布吸引人才政策,部分政策内容与购房挂钩,这被市场解读是调控松绑的表现。严跃进认为,随着户籍政策的调整,实际上会对相关住房交易等产生影响。类似政策一出台,预计当地房企和销售机构会趁势涨价,所以房住不炒的政策内容会强化,各地房企若出现违规涨价,预计四季度还是会被约谈,这时房企不应该违背基本的销售纪律。此外,后续对于土地市场的管控也变得比较重要。房屋交易市场容易传导到土地交易市场,对于此类土地交易市场的管控中,主要还是要防范土地囤积和地价虚高上涨等现象。case study importance. write my research papers
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