各地不断释放楼市利好:二季度政策面有望持续升温
https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/464aed92ce2a47eebb4455ad7b000772~tplv-tt-large.image?_iz=30575&lk3s=06827d14&x-expires=1713362640&x-signature=v3sRT1oB5BkgwpA6RDJZjh9qvjw%3D在刚刚过去的清明假期(4月4日至6日),尽管多地售楼处推出较有诚意的优惠促销活动,叠加持续出台的楼市利好政策,但楼市销售端依然呈现出持续承压态势。
诸葛数据研究中心监测数据显示,清明假期期间,重点10城新建商品住宅成交1329套,日均成交443套,由于2023年清明假期仅有1天,因此,按同周期总量与2022年同期对比来看,今年新建商品住宅总成交量较2022年下降39.32%。
中指研究院市场研究总监陈文静在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,整体来看,清明假期期间部分城市市场情绪略有修复,如北京、青岛、郑州等地在政策带动下到访量增加。展望未来,各地优化楼市政策仍有较大空间。
应对销售承压楼市新政频出
今年以来,从中央到地方密集出台楼市支持政策。
一方面,为加大金融机构支持房企项目融资,1月中旬,住房和城乡建设部、金融监管总局发布《关于建立城市房地产融资协调机制的通知》,要求各地级及以上城市建立城市房地产融资协调机制。此举旨在从供给端进一步促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,更加精准支持房地产项目合理融资需求。
《证券日报》记者从住房和城乡建设部获悉,目前,全国31个省份和新疆生产建设兵团均已建立省级房地产融资协调机制,所有地级及以上城市(不含直辖市)已建立城市房地产融资协调机制,分批提出可以给予融资支持的房地产项目“白名单”并推送给商业银行。数据显示,截至3月31日,各地推送的“白名单”项目中,有1979个项目共获得银行授信4690.3亿元,1247个项目已获得贷款发放1554.1亿元。
另一方面,为应对房地产市场的持续调整以及购房者“入市”信心仍待恢复等多重挑战,包括一线城市在内的众多城市推出了新一轮楼市支持政策。
具体来看,继一线城市陆续限购“松绑”政策后,3月26日,深圳废止了2006年以来实行的“7090政策”,这意味着今后楼盘的大户型将不受限制。3月27日,北京明确废止“夫妻离异任何一方3年内不得购房”规定的有关文件。此外,多地提高公积金贷款最高额度、提高新市民和青年人贷款额度、实施“先提后贷”政策等。另有一些地区出台契税补贴政策,并发放购房消费券。
“一季度以来,包括一线城市在内的多数城市进一步放开需求侧限制政策,部分城市也出台了购房鼓励政策。在此背景下,房地产市场呈现出一些积极变化。”中国银行研究院研究员叶银丹对《证券日报》记者表示,比如,房地产投资同比下降幅度进一步收窄;同时,新房、二手房成交也出现了一些活跃迹象。
中指研究院数据显示,今年一季度,尽管重点100城新建商品住宅整体成交规模处于近年来同期低位,但春节后,房地产市场成交活跃度温和回升。根据初步统计,2024年一季度,重点100城新建商品住宅月均成交面积为1825万平方米,同比下降约四成。从春节后的数据来看,部分核心城市在政策优化带动下,新房市场活跃度有所提升,在2月份低基数下,3月份重点100城新建商品住宅成交面积环比翻倍增长,同比降幅明显收窄。整体来看,当前购房者收入及房价预期尚未完全恢复,整体市场仍有调整压力。
一线城市政策仍有优化空间
作为楼市调控政策的风向标,一般情况下,为避免政策“松绑”导致成交过热,一线城市的楼市政策优化内容及空间均相对较为有限,且执行力度偏紧。业内对于后续一线城市继续出台楼市支持政策期望较高。
以北京为例,北京市住建委统计数据显示,2024年一季度,北京二手房成交33056套,新房成交7092套;去年同期,二手房成交45815套,新房成交11765套。可以看出,今年一季度新房、二手房成交量均明显下滑。另外,从清明假期北京新建商品住宅的日均成交表现来看,中指研究院数据显示,今年清明假期日均成交规模为0.57万平方米,远低于2023年的1.97万平方米、2022年的1.01万平方米。上海、深圳及广州亦有类似情况。
“从目前一线城市的楼市表现来看,预计二季度政策面有进一步优化的空间。”同策研究院研究总监宋红卫在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,主要体现在三个方面:一是进一步降低购房门槛,扩大购房人口基数;二是降低购房成本;三是加快城市更新及城中村改造。预计未来在一线城市外围区域的“从严从紧”政策或全面取消,且会进一步降低购房按揭利率及加大公积金政策支持力度。
值得关注的是,4月份以来,郑州、无锡、南昌、赣州等地相继推出“以旧换新”政策或阶段性取消首套房贷利率下限,旨在进一步激活刚需及改善型购房需求。
陈文静表示,短期来看,“以旧换新”政策有利于促进新房、二手房联动,有望提高楼市活跃度。同时,多地已经发布保租房筹集计划,未来收购存量二手房作为保租房或是重要方式。整体来看,预计未来或有更多城市参与“以旧换新”,促进改善型住房需求释放。
在叶银丹看来,整体来看,二季度房地产相关支持政策力度将继续加大,房地产市场供需两端的下行趋势有望出现一定程度缓解,但市场信心、预期修复和行业企稳仍需时间。
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