前程无忧 发表于 2024-4-7 14:57:32

中国楼市新动向:多地国资出手收购二手房,折射出哪些现实信号?

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2024年,中国楼市,出现了一些微妙而又特殊的新动向,很有看头。
当下中国房地产市场,不缺房子,新的二手的都不缺,但是就缺买房人。
从2023年几轮楼市政策调整和尝试的经验积累下来,实际上明眼人都知道,对于绝大多数普通城市而言,来个文件,限制放松,已经没有什么现实效果了,但是楼市又直接关联地方财政,不救不行,所以,八仙过海,各显神通的一幕就来了:
各地政府在自己的资源和职权范围之内,开始想尽办法的搞活了。
这其中以“全国烂尾楼数量最多的”郑州最新的动作,简直可以说的上叹为观止:
4月1日,郑州市房管局等六部门联合印发《郑州市促进房产市场“卖旧买新、以旧换新”工作方案(试行)》。
根据方案,2024年郑州市计划完成二手住房“卖旧买新、以旧换新”1万套,占2023年郑州二手房交易总量的近1/10。

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相信很多人最初看到这条消息的时候,以为是年初二手房的“卖旧买新,以小换大”的鼓励政策,地方给予一定的契税优惠,刺激改善需求,把旧的小房子卖掉,换一个大房子,四个一线城市松绑限购的时候,这招很有用。
但实际这个工作方案,不是那么回事,而是更有门道。
这一次,是地方政府自掏腰包,为楼市以旧换新这个模式中的“换”提供成本了。
简而言之,是国家队亲自出手收购二手房。
郑州市促进房产市场“卖旧买新、以旧换新”工作按以下两种方式进行:
一是郑州城市发展集团有限公司(政府指定作为收购主体)收购二手住房,面向市场收购二手住房并促成“以旧换新”,计划试点阶段完成500套,全年计划完成5000套;
二是政府政策鼓励,居民通过市场交易实现“卖旧买新、以旧换新”。
对通过以上两种方式换购新建商品住房的,郑州市现行的契税补贴30%政策延续到2024年12月31日。
国资出手收购二手房,不可谓不是大手笔和大动作了吧?问题是,这样的地方政府和国资深度参与市场,刺激需求,能够给当下低迷沉闷的楼市,带来多大的效果?
然后,通过这个最新动向,折射了哪些现实信号,后续中国的楼市,又该怎么去研判?
这篇文章,就将基于对郑州,包括多个城市最新的楼市刺激新动向的详细梳理,结合当下楼市的一些真实情况和数据表现,深入挖掘当下地方政府和国家对于救市的思路和逻辑,并对后续中国楼市的几个可能走向,进行一次有深度,有态度,有依有据的专题讨论和分析研究。


关注动向,把握本质,看清主线,研判趋势,指导行动。
本文已反复自查合规,不碰红线,语言平和公允,不带价值导向。
内容有依有据,分析理性客观。
硬核内容,错过不再。
以微见著,洞察先机,把握趋势,指导决策。
PS:

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1

郑州楼市最新政策,把“以旧换新”玩出了花,具体是怎么一回事?



楼市以旧换新,其实不是什么新鲜玩意,最早是淄博发明的。去年(2023/9/6),淄博推出的以旧换新,在更大程度上是服务,而不是政策——淄博政府并不出手收购,而是把房企与中介机构整合在一起,为购房者提供更顺畅、更便捷、更一体化的服务。
此后(2023/9/28),太仓升级了淄博版以旧换新,由国资平台收购二手房。这就不止是服务了,而是硬核政策。
再之后,宣城和启东等城市陆续跟进了太仓版以旧换新。
这个玩法,可以看作二线以下的中小城市,边缘城市,在有限的框架和权限范围之内,为当地楼市进行的极限抢救,当然,因为原本这么玩的城市量级所限,市场规模有限,也没闹出多大的水花,实际效果,也难言理想。
但是,4月1日这一天,作为国家中心城市与省会城市的郑州,也宣布跟进,并且出手更加阔绰,计划今年要收购5000套二手房。
4月1日,郑州市房管局等部门印发《郑州市促进房产市场“卖旧买新、以旧换新”工作方案》。
根据方案,2024年郑州全市计划完成二手住房“卖旧买新、以旧换新”10000套,
其中5000套由“国家队”也就是地方国资直接下场收购,另外5000套则通过契税补贴促进市场化自由成交来实现。
看具体政策怎么说的:
通过郑州城市发展集团(国资平台)收购二手住房,促成群众以旧换新购买改善型新建商品房,计划全年收购5000套,配合市场全年收购10000套。
话说得挺绕口,其实一句话就能解释清楚:
一线、强二线城市有需求,居民卖旧可以卖的出去,但是弱二线、三四线城市想要换新旧的都没有刚需接盘。
改善需求还是有的,但是实力不允许,卡住了。怎么办?
国家队出手,把你手里的旧房子买了,唯一的要求就是买了你的房子之后,你要买个更大的新房。
大白话说一下这个逻辑:
现在这个行情,卖房子缺下家。因为上个月一套房子跌出了超低价,有人出手了,去捡漏。还没开心一个月,同小区的挂牌价都调到了这套房子的成交价了。造孽啊,贝壳当年真房源真价格,现在成了屠杀房东的双刃剑了。
为了打通这个问题,郑州出了个方案。政府收购二手房,但你卖家套现了,必须买我指定的新房。
郑州,决定把开发商的新房和房东拟出让的新房,放在一个平台上。二手房房源目前仅选择郑州2个成熟区域的。
计划收购5000套二手房,这5000个房东反手再买5000套新房。
这就把牛,圈在了围栏里了。
肉烂在锅里,总比烂在外面要好,存量挖掘,刺激带动,这一次,郑州的做法,还真的是“舍不得孩子套不着狼”的清晰意图了。
简单梳理一下:
当下全国已经有超过20座城市实施购房以旧换新政策。模式大概有四种,
第一种就是纯纯的嘴上鼓励,没有实质性的让利,淄博楼市,南京楼市就是这样套路。只是由地方牵头,组织开发商,业主,中介三方进行合作,业主先找开发商看好房子,交好定金,然后把手里面的旧房子再委托给中介出售,一定的期限内如果卖掉,就会直接买新房,如果中间没有卖掉,则开发商退还业主的定金。像这种政策基本上就是鸡肋政策,就是一个噱头。如果业主能够快速卖掉手里的二手房,还用这样劳心劳力和开发商签合同,又和中介签合同的折腾吗?难道是,看上开发商可以退定金?
第二种就是开发商收购老房子,然后业主拿着钱再买开发商的新房,这种模式挺不错的,徐州楼市就有一些新盘项目搞过这样的活动,但是没办法持久。因为开发商卖房就是为了去化库存,他再收购过来一套,还是老房子,这不是搬起石头砸自己脚吗?
第三种是第一种的加强版,不再单纯耍嘴皮子,而是在旧换新的过程中补贴一定的交易税费。但刺激作用依旧不大。原因很简单,现在大家之所以不买房,是收入预期不足,房价上涨预期不足,房地产基本面见顶再加上房价过高导致的,并且近两年房价持续性下降,很多城市的平均降幅都在20%左右,所以简单的交易税费补贴根本激不起购房需求,
第四种“国家队”也就是国资下场收购房屋,然后用作保障性住房,比如郑州和江苏太仓就是这样的政策,这种模式理性判断是非常不错的,既增加了保障性住房,又盘活了新房和二手房的流通性,并且达到去化库存的目的,一箭四雕。


大家其实可以清晰看到一个关键问题:
郑州以及江苏太仓执行的国资收购房产以旧换新模式体量都非常小,并没有进行大规模的收购,并且很多城市也没有跟进效仿,
虽然它的模式很好,原因很简单,近几年地方和绝大多数普通购房者遇到的情况是一样的,那就是手里资金紧张。
以小博大,用以旧换新当作契入点想要撬动激活楼市,本质上,和过去的4万亿大放水,以及货币化棚改,完全就不是一个量级的刺激。
但是能让地方政府绞劲脑汁,殚精竭虑,使出这么一招,所对应的政府对楼市的着急和企图,其实非常明显了:急,直接的急。
事情就是这么一个事情,相关文件和新政内容网上一搜一把。

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2

结合现实:超30城支持住房“以旧换新”,释放了怎样的信号?



其实不只郑州,目前热点城市新房和二手房都出现了疲弱甚至相互竞争、循环降价的现象,导致房地产循环链条中断。
同时目前市场上存在“卖一买一”、“卖旧买新”、“卖小买大”的改善型和消费升级需求。
当市场失灵的时候,特别是直接关联地方政府的财政收入的楼市,政府的介入和着急,也是可以理解的。
据中指研究院统计,2023年以来已有超30城表态支持“以旧换新”,盐城、苏州、沈阳等地区发放“以旧换新”购房补贴,宁波、盐城、济南等部分城市联合开发商及房地产经纪机构推出“换新购”服务,购房者可在开发商处认购并锁定房源,并由委托的房地产经纪机构出售旧房,若一定期限内旧房售出则按流程购买新房,若旧房未售出则退还新房认购金。苏州相城区、郑州、连云港等地国企平台或开发商则直接收购旧房,售房款用于在相应项目购买新房。
这一系列地方政府都搞起了以旧换新,要结合楼市实际情况来看:
三月数据基本都出来了,一线城市成交环比增幅是147%,高于二线城市的83%,实现了全面的成交反弹。
北京二手房成交了大约1.4万套,上海成交接近2万套,深圳5200多套,广州是9300多套。
整体行情不如稍逊3月,但却是近一年来的最高峰,基本都站上了“枯荣线”以上,尤其深圳,刷新了近三年的成交单月高峰。
至于大家目前体感不强,是因为目前处于“以价换量”阶段,也就是大家最近看到的,楼市很热闹,成交也很旺,但价格却在跌。
这其实并不是坏事,而是市场转折的必经之路。
但是这个过程中,很明显的一点,就是一线城市都下场,开始虹吸其他城市的潜在购买力了。
绝大多数人看以旧换新,只会想到当地救市,为了土地财政,为了刺激市场,没有看到更深一层的,那就是中小城市的资产保卫战:先不管什么土地财政了,再不做点什么,有消费力的群体和居民财富,都要被一线城市和头部大城市给抽空了!
一个很直接的问题:都是国资下场,为什么购房补贴没有多少动力,以旧换新却格外积极?
还是以郑州为例,一招以旧换新,可以说一石多鸟:
1、创造需求:本来楼市需求不足,即使有改善需求也找不到接盘的刚需,国资平台下场充当刚需接盘,卡住的链条一下畅通了。
2、创造贷款:国资平台也没有钱,但是国家今年发了租赁住房贷款,可以支持地方收储存量房作公租房,这不就见缝插针利用起来了。
3、一鱼两吃:首先要吃评估价,收房的时候一般按照评估价的八八折来收购旧房,然后还要买个大的新房,打个比方,卖90平买120平这就有30平的差价,里外里吃了两道。
4、圈住财富:通过对本地改善和换房群体的流动性释放,保证了这些群体能够把财富固化在本地,而不会基于当下的宽松条件往其他大城市流失。


不得不说,果然人才都在体制内啊。
没想到国家鼓励的以旧换新还能用到楼市上。
更重要的是,一场盘桓于中国各个城市之间的资产攻防战,已经正式打响了。
就问问郑州的朋友和投资郑州房产的朋友们,如果条件允许,能够卖掉当下郑州的房子,去买一线的房子,大家会不会心动?
逻辑和本质,就应该是这么简单粗暴,说破天,也就这么个事。

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3

趋势研判:国资下场,参与楼市刺激,接下来的中国楼市,会有哪些变化?



按照郑州的模式和逻辑,后面肯定会有回过神的城市陆续加入这种国资下场的以旧换新救市活动的。
但是实际效果,其实并不值得期待。
中国现在很明显的救市策略,其实并不复杂:
1、先让富人买起来,豪宅要发挥拉预期的作用;
2、带动有购买力的中产入场消化库存;
3、底层给保障房,这个已经是明牌了。
但是当下的问题关键就在于,中产还在努力还贷,但因为二手房库存+法拍房数量巨大,他们的资产是下滑的,收入可能也不够坚挺,给他们去杠杆最简单的办法就是把房贷利率降下来,比如有人建议直接降到2%,但这么干银行肯定受不了。
那如果全靠市场的的力量,有钱人买完,下一波怎么接呢?
国资提供以旧换新的过程成本,并不能改变中产群体对收入的信心和建立对未来房价增长的预期。
而且,在经济压力之下,越来越多的理性中产,还选择了反向置换,甚至租房居住。
动辄百万的商品房,不是说给点置换优惠和环境改善就能有动力刺激起来的。
本质上,和法拉利5元优惠券的效果可能差不多:

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实事求是的来说,中国当下大部分中产去杠杆的进度条也才到中间,降房价、降房贷银行有压力,唯一的办法,只能是收入能增长。
而以旧换新,短期内对市场拉动刺激效果一定有限,而且,还可能会产生权力寻租的道德风险,不过对于很多城市来说,这已经是当下职权范围内,想要救市的最优解了。
理性分析,现在土地收入急剧下滑,很多城市根本就没有能力拿出资金,让地方国资下场收购房产。
所以模式再好,没有钱,拿不出钱,一切都是白搭。
这样的模式,即使跑通,对当下中国的楼市实际情况而言,也是不治标不治本的一个刺激,对效果预期,不值得期待。
中国楼市的问题和困境,早已不局限于楼市和房价本身了,购房群体的收入没有得到实质性增长以前,还想要往居民部门,特别是依然还处于去杠杆,资产持续缩水的群体转头主动去加杠杆,无疑是非常不现实的。
当然,道理都懂,但是有些时候,身不由己而已。

https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/b97a6316972845539805367478b17a27~tplv-tt-large.image?_iz=30575&lk3s=06827d14&x-expires=1713079048&x-signature=vHnPOU8Ikp1exm%2BBCMtrx4uwYdg%3D

图片来源:头条图库
写在最后:

从个体和家庭的角度,如何看清趋势,指导行动?



回到当下中国楼市来看,毫不夸张的说,现在很多城市的二手房市场和行情表现已经彻底击穿了投资客的心理防线了。
资产和金融属性加速被剥离,对应的市场陷入低迷和冷清,是必然结果。
国家其实也很清楚,当下中国楼市的问题,想要通过政策在楼市中就能解决和改善,是不太可能的了。
或许有人会用香港撤辣以后出现市场升温来说事,那么这里问一句,如果北广上深的楼市限制全部放开,还是没有效果,甚至房价继续下行承压怎么办?
政策其实就是一纸记录规则的文字而已,改政策太容易,但是规则和最后的体面,就没有那么简单了。
总的来说,这一轮中国楼市和房价的调整,还远远没有触底的表现和信号出现,从投资,甚至投机的角度出发,要么场内忍受煎熬,要么场外谨慎观望,没多少好讨论的。
而从刚需和改善的角度来看,虽然规则利好,环境友好,但是从理性的角度,按照当下的经济现实情况来看,一动不如一静,少折腾才是王道。


以上,就是对中国楼市在2024年4月份,最新的一个市场政策动向,进行的专题梳理和分析讨论内容,和各位头条的读者朋友们,进行一个交流和分享。

https://p26-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/5c3b45c876574628bcdd863d1cbab88b~tplv-tt-large.image?_iz=30575&lk3s=06827d14&x-expires=1713079048&x-signature=P%2Ft9zTKmsn7z7Ysiif5K1TFkx6U%3D

图片来源:头条图库
(根据国家有关部门的最新规定,本文内容和意见仅供参考,不构成任何关于置业,投资等行为的明确建议,入市风险自担。)
以上正文,来自@熊猫贝贝小可爱
交个敢说真话,会说实话,善于观察的年轻人朋友,可好?
原创写作分享不易,如果觉得文章不错,欢迎转发点赞。关注本人
实力原创,头条独家,如有抄袭搬运侵权行为,必究!
有问题欢迎留言,再不行就私信也行,文明交流,有问必答,谢谢各位。

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