“地王”重现江湖,楼市供给端释放什么新信号?
曾经频现于楼市高热期的“地王”,又重现江湖了。近一周以来,多地土拍市场异动,核心区域频现高价地,“地王”项目更是接连出现。从宁波、苏州、厦门,再到更早的合肥等,新一年土拍市场热闹不已。
变化始于去年9月底,当时自然资源部向各省市下发文件,建议取消土地拍卖中的地价限制、建议取消远郊区容积率1.0限制等,此后土拍市场频现“点状高温”。
不过,与曾经2016年的“地王”大年相比,如今市场环境已然大变。当下央国企仍是拿地主力,能拍出历史高价的地块,也多为政府的“压箱底”优质资源,市场并未无差别回温。
“地王”现身背后更普遍的现象是,楼市供给侧正生变。业内认为,随着各地优质地块不断放量,未来这些项目入市将对改善市场形成明显支撑,助力构建“保障+市场”双轨供给体系。
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地王“涌现”
新年以来,土地市场“点状高温”,多城拍出高价地。
最典型的是3月27日那天,宁波、苏州、厦门三城土拍同时出现“地王”。
3月27日,宁波市江北区湾头地段一地块成功拍卖,经过31轮竞价,江山万里+宁波东投以总价22.05亿元竞得,楼面价32613元/平方米,溢价率7.3%,地块楼面价创宁波市区涉宅地新高,成为宁波的新晋单价地王。
同日,苏州工业园区也开启拍地,双湖板块02号地块共获得6家房企意向参拍,起始价26.1亿元,最终经过51轮竞价,由绿城房地产集团有限公司以总价30.82亿元竞得,溢价18.22%,成交楼面价65022元/平方米刷新历史纪录。
此前,苏州最高成交楼面价为狮山Z03地块,由绿城于3月13日竞得,溢价率42.05%,成交楼面地价45455元/平方米。如今“地王”项目再次被绿城刷新,且已超江苏最高成交楼面价。
房企如此热情高涨,是因为货架上的地块实在优质。据悉,上述02号地块是“断供十年”的双湖板块拿出的“压箱底”低密住宅地块,地处九龙仓国宾1号的东侧、苏州御园的西侧,地价、房价都位列苏州第一价格梯队,是苏州绝对的“富人区”。
厦门受到热捧的地块与此类似,都是当地核心地段的优质资源。3月27日上午,厦门出让2宗宅地,总建筑面积11.69万平方米,起拍总价为36.8亿元,最终共计揽金46.1亿元。
其中,思明区将军祠2024P01地块,被厦门国贸以32.1亿元总价,折合楼面地价6.27万元/平方米拿下,溢价率高达41%,成为楼面地价新晋“地王”。此前,厦门岛内的单价“地王”,是中海去年拿下的大唐中心2023P08地块,彼时楼面地价约5.18万元/平方米。
在业内人士看来,将军祠地块引起激烈争夺并不令人意外。首先,该地块处于厦门老城区核心区位置,周边生活配套齐全,交通便捷,且具有优质的教育配套加持,地块“含金量”极高;此外,该地块片区内无在售新房项目,未来竞品压力较小。
除了这三城接连出现的“地王”项目,其他城市也有不少高价地出现。
比如2月末,合肥龙年第一场土拍,3块地共拍出32.28亿,其中高速05号地块由招商蛇口以12.98亿元抢到,楼面地价达到25050元/平方米,溢价率54.15%,成为合肥单价新“地王”。自去年11月取消土地限价后,合肥最高楼面价已被数次刷新。
冷热分化
今年一季度,土拍整体走势极为分化。
虽然苏州、宁波、成都、上海土拍溢价率均超9%,核心城市“地王”频现,但从全国角度而言,底价成交的地块幅数占比超七成,土地市场热度分化显著,克而瑞研报显示该观点。
整个一季度,仅有三成销售百强房企拿地,且整体投资格局并未发生转变,依旧是以过去三年拿地较多的央国企为主,民企中仅有滨江、龙湖、伟星投资排名靠前。
即便是“地王”频出的三月,CRIC监测的30家房企投资金额也环比持平,同比下跌36%。房企投资仍旧谨慎,聚焦核心地段、聚焦优势城市,尤其以大本营城市为主。
中指研究院也表示,土拍分化现象愈加明显,一方面自“取消土地限价”政策以来,楼面价重现区域新高。但另一方面,部分城市和区域地块持续维持低价成交,如26日北京怀柔雁栖镇地块底价成交,同日青岛出让的4宗地块也以底价成交。
“整体来看,尽管近期部分地块热度较高,但仅限于核心板块优质地块,整体土地市场分化仍在加剧,土地市场回温仍依赖楼市销售端恢复节奏。”中指研究院分析师孟新增告诉第一财经。
不过,几宗高价地的成交,还是推高了一季度拿地总额。中指研究院数据显示,2024年1~3月,TOP100企业拿地总额2217亿元,同比增长14.9%,较1~2月同比增速有所下降。
当下,拿地榜单中的头部选手仍是央国企。从新增货值看,华润置地、中建壹品和中国铁建位列前三,一季度华润置地以444亿元新增货值占据行业榜单第一,中建壹品以412亿元新增货值占据榜单第二,中国铁建新增货值规模为243亿元,跃至第三。
此外,榜单中出现了多个地方国资企业。比如,石家庄城发投集团一季度新增货值总额182亿元,位居行业第六;中国雄安集团、湖北文化旅游集团、济南高新控股集团、广州城投地产、广州南沙交通投资集团等地方国资企业,均在榜单前二十行列中。
“重点城市拿地金额TOP10房企中,有半数以上为央企国企。”中指院表示,中国铁建、中国中铁等全国性龙头企业仍在多个重点城市布局,这与稳健型国央企的资金状况相对较好有直接关系。滨江集团、绿城中国等民企则在重点深耕区域补充土储。
在业内看来,近期出台的多个新政,对提振土地市场较有针对性。比如,广州120平方米以上取消限购、深圳7090废止等,高端、改善型地块将成为更受欢迎的“香饽饽”,而纯刚需地块则可能进一步遇冷,土地市场将出现进一步冷热分化的局面。
供给之变
土地市场的新动向,背后反映了我国住房供给结构之变。
过去一年,在销售端尚未转暖背景下,政府推地、房企拿地谨慎,土拍市场较为低迷。为稳定土地市场,2023年9月底,自然资源部向各省市自然资源主管部门下发文件,内容包括建议取消土地拍卖中的地价限制、建议取消远郊区容积率1.0限制等。
随后,各地政府纷纷取消土拍地价上限,重回“价高者得”的时代。在业内看来,这不仅是为提振土拍市场,也是响应新一轮房改的方向,助力构建“保障”与“市场”双轨供应体系。
未来房地产业转型发展的新模式,一是加大保障性住房建设和供给,让工薪收入群体逐步实现居者有其屋,消除买不起商品住房的焦虑;二是让商品住房回归商品属性,满足改善性住房需求,推动房地产业转型和高质量发展,这被业内称为“新房改”。
广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉表示,在过去“90/70”“限地价、限溢价和限房价”等政策之下,房企既要打造改善型、豪宅型等产品,又要配70%小户型、竞配建,导致商品房供给与需求并不匹配,并没有从市场真实需求出发,即使有钱也买不到真正的“豪宅”。
“破局,就需要土地和产品层面的供给侧改革。”他表示,未来商品房项目卸下公共配建、民生保障等各种负担,打造纯正的改善型房源;刚需和部分改善型需求则转向二手房市场,包括价格更低的配售型保障性住房,实现“市场的归市场、保障的归保障”。
过去一年,高端改善型房源已出现明显热销,2023年成为豪宅成交大年,重点城市总价千万以上豪宅成交规模稳中有增,北上广深等核心城市高价住宅成交放量。
孟新增表示,步入2024年,杭州、泉州、福州、厦门继续优化房屋销售价格上限要求,土拍规模不断优化调整,为企业打造改善性产品奠定了更好的基础。2023年22城高溢价(一般指成交溢价率超10%)地块成交规划建面同比上涨20%,今年各地优质地块继续放量,未来这些项目入市将进一步对改善市场形成一定支撑。
平安证券表示,“保障+市场”供给新体系正加速构建,未来刚需家庭购房将主要通过配售型保障性住房或二手房解决,核心地段商品房主要面向有支付能力的改善型住房需求。
(本文来自第一财经)
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