sanasnoz 发表于 2023-6-21 16:07:26

刚刚,LPR再次下调!否极泰来,下半年楼市极大可能调头转向

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还有10天,2023年上半年即将过完。
在2023年上半年的5、6月份,中国房地产市场、郑州房地产市场度过了艰难的黑色五月、黑色六月。
各种数据,真的很不好看。
无论是土拍数据、新房数据、二手房数据。
还包括其他非楼市数据。
在这样的背景下,今天上午,中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布,
2023年6月20日贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为:
1年期LPR为3.55%,5年期以上LPR为4.2%。
以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。

https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-qvj2lq49k0/3f924333e59349bf983071eeecc33a46~tplv-tt-large.image?x-expires=2002698280&x-signature=6q0anIWd%2FOuYlMcGPFwtXbANzvU%3D

这代表什么?
1、未来时间内,新买房的买房人房贷利率比目前房贷利率进一步下降。
2、未来时间内,已经买过房的存量房每个月需支付的房贷,也会相应减少。
以上,是直接的影响。
但本质上的影响是:这是一种态度。积极的态度。对于楼市而言。
好的,今天是6月20日。记住这个日子。
也许这个日子是个分水岭。
下一个重要日子是6月30日。
看还会有什么重磅政策出来吧。
总之,要救市。救市是必然的。
这是各方达成的共识。不以任何人意志为转移。
或早或晚,或大招或小招。
因为,今年的房地产市场确实太糟了,市场情绪太差了,信心太差了。
这一切,和“促进房地产市场平稳健康发展”的要求偏差了。

https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-qvj2lq49k0/ad86143ddc9c42cfa5041252af4b38d7~tplv-tt-large.image?x-expires=2002698280&x-signature=iKIbMpNctjAe2I1zZJ8nhJzhp9Q%3D

几个看法:
1、救市是必然。等吧。等风来。
2、当下(郑州)房地产市场的问题已经不是简单的行业问题,而是经济问题、信心问题、预期问题。
3、当下混乱的新房市场的种种乱象——大房企暴雷、烂尾、躺平、品质下降、房价下跌——是多种病因交叉感染。
4、当下二手房市场呈现两个特征:更多买房人倾向买二手房;但同时房东群体出现了“恐慌性抛售、踩踏式抛售”的新特点。
5、未来的7、8月份,市场依然惨淡。这是传统的市场淡季——除了2016年7、8月份的市场狂飙。
会不会出现例外?取决于新政策的出台时间和力度。
6、需要放在2023年全年角度,来预测和评估郑州房地产市场下半年的走势。
整体上,我认为今年还有一波行情。
这个行情在哪个月?我不知道。
但下半年的6个月期间,一定有。
7、很多人压根儿就没明白自己为啥要卖房,压根儿就没明白自己为啥要买房。真的。
8、房地产从业者,振作起来吧,不要再自我消沉了。
买房人还在学习,而很多房地产从业者眼中无光,过一天是一天。
9、马上是大学生毕业季了。据说,很多大学生不愿意从事房地产行业工作。房地产行业里的职业已经被歧视了。
但好玩的另外现实一面是:很多大学毕业生找不到工作。
我想对很多父母和年轻大学生朋友说:
窗明几净办公室喝水咖啡不受委屈不加班还拿高薪的工作是不存在的。
10、买在无人问津处,卖在人声鼎沸时。
11、你完全可以不买房啊。可以租房。没人逼。除了丈母娘。
12、翻阅厚厚的《资治通鉴》,我只看到了八个字:物极必反,否极泰来。
13、放心,郑州房地产还有几十年光景呢。这才哪到哪啊。
本文完。


▼往期文章

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备注:
本文部分图片和信息来源于网络。
文中观点只是作者看法,不构成操作建议。

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